Their quixotic faith in this evolutionary process has persisted even though the next quantum leap is now five or 10 years overdue. For some, the release of Apple's new operating system, Mac OS X, was going to be the next jump. But Apple's public beta test of its biggest OS update since the Mac was first released in 1984 may throw cold water on notions that the computer industry is due for another big advance and that Apple will be the company that makes it happen.

It's common knowledge among fans of Christmas and ketchup that waiting for the good stuff is half the fun. But after too lengthy a period of waiting, we begin to doubt that the delivery will be made and begin to resent the thing we wanted, as if the ketchup had solidified in the bottle. Eventually we stop shaking and tapping and just eat the hamburger plain.

Mac fans used to enjoy waiting for the Next Big Thing because they were almost always rewarded. In the '80s and early '90s, what the Mac delivered really was big. In fact, with the exception of the Internet, what Mac came up with constitutes the modern conception of "what computers do." Revolutionary trends invented or first capitalized on by Apple during this period include the graphical user interface, networking, plug and play, 3.5-inch floppies, CD-ROM drives, digital imaging, digital video and laser printers.

And that's just a start. This proliferation of paradigm shifts seemed as if it would continue forever at a constant or even increasing rate. But of course the pace of change for the better in the computer world had to slow, as it has in every new industry before it. Just because personal computers sprang seemingly from nowhere into the forefront of pop culture does not mean they are exempt from the same cycle as every previous miraculous technology, from flint arrowheads to blow-dryers.

The dynamic at work is a simple one. Inventors mostly refine previous ideas by building the proverbial better mousetrap. But every once in a while, when the time and place are just right, they see the need for a mousetrap in the first place while everyone else just puts out some grain at night to keep the mice from climbing into their shoes. This second kind of invention doesn't simply improve on processes we are already familiar with, but creates entirely new ways of doing things or entirely new things to do. And because the invention is new, there are usually immediately obvious ways to make large improvements upon it that turbocharge its early development. Gradually the refinements become less and less exciting -- certain users may even perceive them as backward steps.

Which brings us back to Apple, the arguably deserving poster child of innovation in the realm of the PC. The advancements that Apple created or adopted in the '80s were so important to the computer industry that it became axiomatic that some company, probably Apple, would periodically continue these great leaps forward. Given the quantum leap from typing lengthy, arcane commands to selecting sensible actions from a pull-down menu, anticipation was high as to what would come next. Mac lovers settled in with popcorn, eager to witness the next quantum leap in the relationship between man and machine, while DOS/Windows users were just happy that they could use their cheap PC as a cash register and a payroll system.

The Free Software Project
Read Andrew Leonard's book-in-progress on Linux and open source -- and post your comments.