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But Jupiter doesn't always get its predictions right, and critics routinely lambaste the company for being inexperienced, inaccurate or victim to industry hype. "They've been so wrong in the past in terms of their forecasts that their credibility in the music space is nearly zero," says one executive in the online music business. Journalists complain that they often know more than the Jupiter analysts they call for quotes, and some Net executives say that rather than learning from the analysts, they often hear their own ideas parroted back to them. "Using a research analyst is like lending your watch to someone so that they can tell you the time," says the music executive.

While there are some astute minds at Jupiter, some of its analysts certainly have less business experience and time in the trenches than a good many people in the industry they cover. Jupiter vice president and top analyst Nicole Vanderbilt is 25 and has already clocked three years at Jupiter. CEO Gene DeRose describes his career before Jupiter as "struggling novelist" and Cosmopolitan columnist, and Adam Schoenfeld staffed an undistinguished desk at the Associated Press before he came to Jupiter in the early 1990s. Until two years ago, when it landed some funding, Jupiter could only afford neophyte analysts and primarily hired young journalists and writers. But recently, Jupiter has had money to hire more seasoned analysts, and observers say that the quality of research has risen as a result. Laughs Schoenfeld, "Gene and I often joke that we're not sure that either of us could get hired here today."

But Schoenfeld and DeRose, both slickly opinionated New York scenesters in their mid-30s, are proof positive of Jupiter's positioning as the "cool" market research firm. Jupiter was founded in 1986 by the feisty and idiosyncratic Josh Harris -- now the CEO of Pseudo and a man prone to keeping reptiles in his office -- after a stint working at a technology newsletter company. Named after Jupiter Jones, a character in Alfred Hitchcock's children's book series The Three Investigators, Jupiter Communications started its life as a two-person newsletter company fueled by credit cards and a lot of moxie, with a focus on interactive consumer technologies (which, in those days, were few).

But Jupiter came into its own with the rise of the Internet, and found a niche by focusing exclusively on the consumer angle to Net use. When the Web hit big, journalists everywhere were looking for "experts" to tell them about this baffling new online world, and Jupiter was quick to step to the plate and offer statistics, quotes and made-to-order industry predictions. Forrester Research, an established firm with roots in corporate computer markets, moved in a few years later; the two companies have vied for prominent placement in mainstream news services ever since, with Forrester coming out slightly ahead. (Forrester encourages its analysts to talk to the press by including media calls in its standard performance goals for new analysts.)

Schoenfeld -- who is combatively opinionated and known for making off-the-cuff comments like "Prodigy's IPO has the faint stench of rotting vegetables about it," -- serves as a kind of company mascot for television interviews, with no particular topical expertise but an offer of punditry all across the dial. Wired magazine once called him "a one-man quote-spewing jihad," a descriptor that, Schoenfeld proudly claims, hangs in a frame at home.

Schoenfeld and DeRose downplay the importance of being quoted, but the free press has undoubtedly brought them credibility and clients. It may have even helped them catch the eye of the Gartner Group -- an established information technology research firm that also owns the Dataquest computer research company. In 1997 Gartner snatched up a third of Jupiter Communications and provided enough capital to launch the company into its next phase: strategic planning services.

Next page | Jupiter's key to forecasting: Voodoo and black magic?