War Room

Wielding the conservative veto pen

It's no secret that many conservatives aren't crazy about John McCain, and have gone along with his candidacy for lack of a better option, and also because they view him as potentially a one-term placeholder (in victory or defeat) who will soon be displaced as GOP leader.

That's why there's very high interest among conservatives in the identity of McCain's running-mate, and a sense that they should enjoy a veto over the choice, on pain of letting McCain go into November without benefit of an energized "base" or strong support from the conservative noise machine.

For the most part, the veto threat will be communicated privately, unless McCain gives conservatives grounds for fear that he will betray them. That's why it's interesting to read the very explicit list of unacceptable candidates offered by John J. Miller of National Review in a subscription-only article entitled "McCain's Untouchables: Four men who should not be on the ticket."

First on Miller's list is Joe Lieberman, "a pro-war liberal in the mold of the Cold War's Scoop Jackson, but a liberal nonetheless," who would make the country "one heartbeat away from a Democratic administration." Most Democrats would disagree with that judgment, but we don't get a vote here.

Second is former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, known to be a McCain favorite. But to Miller, Ridge is a "pro-abortion Catholic" with an "unexpectedly liberal voting record" as a congressman back in the 80s, and who as a governor in the 90s "wasn't a game-changing conservative reformer in the mold of Michigan's John Engler or Wisconsin's Tommy Thompson."

Miller's third "untouchable" is Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, another McCain buddy, who is "not a conservative, but rather a populist who has assumed conservative positions on a few issues." Miller scores Crist for being an Arnold Schwarzenegger enthusiast, an abortion rights supporter, and (in an unstated nod to rumors about his sexual orientation) a bachelor.

Finally, Miller anathemizes Mike Huckabee, a favorite of both political handicappers and key elements of the Christian Right. Noting Huck's positive media reviews, Miller says: "In the heat of a general election, however, reporters no longer would portray him as colorful, but as crazy." That was not intended as a compliment. Like Crist, Huckabee also gets large demerits for "populism."

Miller is just one conservative, and others might add Tim Pawlenty or Carly Fiorina or Condi Rice to the "untouchable" list. But on Lieberman, Ridge, Crist and Huckabee, he speaks as one with authority. Don't expect McCain to Go There.

Posted in: John McCain

Quote of the day from Dan Balz

The Washington Post's Dan Balz took a long look at John McCain's economic plan, released yesterday, and offered this informed judgment:

John McCain has been around Washington long enough to remember the days when Republicans constantly clashed among themselves over fiscal policy. Were they the party of Jack Kemp, of supply-side economics and big tax cuts, or the party of Bob Dole and the green eyeshade economics of deficit reduction?

McCain today finds himself with a foot in both camps, though tentatively. He remains an unconvincing tax cutter but he is also an unpersuasive deficit hawk, at least on the basis of his latest economic plan.

And following that observation, Balz served up the Quote of the Day: "He is a pure reflection of the Republican Party he seeks to lead." Hard to argue with that.

Posted in: John McCain

Edwards opens door wider to veep bid

Escaping for a few moments from the tyranny of the War Room and my laptop, I happened to hear a portion of NPR's "Talk of the Nation" show, featuring an interview with John Edwards.

Asked, predictably, about his willingness to serve as Barack Obama's running mate, Edwards clearly said he'd do it -- or anything else -- if Obama asked him.

It was couched in the usual "don't expect it, haven't pursued it" disclaimers, but unless I'm missing something, this represents a change from Edwards' previous line that he'd "seriously consider" an offer if tendered.

The audio and transcript of the interview aren't available yet, but I'm sure others heard what I did, and reached similar conclusions.

Unless I misunderstood (always a possibility), or Edwards subsequently backtracks, you can expect some serious pressure on Obama to go with the North Carolinian, particularly now that fellow Southern populist Jim Webb has taken himself out of the running.

Posted in: John Edwards, Barack Obama

McCain dismisses Maliki timetable talk

On MSNBC's "Morning Joe" program (see video below), John McCain was asked about Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's call yesterday for a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops.

McCain first flatly asserted that the news contradicted what he had heard in direct talks with Iraqi officials. And then, tellingly, he concluded, before going into his standard Iraq rap: "Prime Minister Maliki is a politician."

Interestingly enough, according to a wire story: "Iraq's national security adviser said Tuesday his country will not accept any security deal with the United States unless it contains specific dates for the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces." This "clarifying" statement was apparently made in response to suggestions from the White House that the "timetable" language in yesterday's news reports from Iraq represented some sort of translation error. "Specific dates for withdrawal" is certainly more emphatic than "timetable."

We don't know yet how the White House will respond to this new Iraqi rebuke. But John McCain's breezy dismissal of Maliki's new position as just politics helps explain why Iraqis are a mite sensitive about U.S. respect for that nation's sovereignty.

If you watch the McCain video, you'll also get to enjoy the candidate's efforts to dance around the question of whether the U.S. economy is, as 75 percent of Americans think, in recession. He "imagines" the economy may be, technically, in recession.

Posted in: John McCain

Maliki's timetable and McCain's double bind

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's startling call yesterday for a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops from his country has been slow to draw the kind of attention here that it deserves. Perhaps that's because his announcement was made in the context of complex negotiations over a temporary authorization for the continued U.S. presence in Iraq, and perhaps it's because the precise meaning of "timetable" isn't yet clear.

Still, as Juan Cole explains today, Maliki's announcement reflects the widespread feeling in Iraq that demands by the Bush administration in the course of Status of Forces negotiations represent an offensive infringement of Iraqi sovereignty, requiring a reminder that U.S. troops aren't necessarily indispensible. Maliki may also be signalling his understanding that he may be dealing with a new president next year named Barack Obama.

In terms of the implications for U.S. politics, Maliki's timetable gambit exposes the vulnerability of George W. Bush, John McCain, and other "surge" enthusiasts to the argument that conditions in Iraq have improved enough that U.S. combat troops can soon be pulled out. After all, if the political leadership of that surge-blessed country seems to think it's time to contemplate a withdrawal timetable for U.S. troops, why should Americans resist?

This illustrates the double-bind that Bush, McCain, and the conservative commentariat have created for themselves with their relentless surge-o-mania. If they're wrong and the surge has failed to significantly change the fundamental realities of Iraq, then it's time to get out. If they're right and the surge is succeeding brilliantly, it's also time to get out. Moreover, if Iraqis agree with either assessment, it's definitely time to get out.

Theoretically McCain, if not Bush, could get out of the box by agreeing with Maliki that things are going so well that a withdrawal timetable is in order. But having staked a lot on the argument that Barack Obama is flip-flopping on the terms of withdrawal, McCain's not in a great position to change his tune now.

Posted in: John McCain

Obama hires HRC women's outreach director

In another sign that Barack Obama's campaign is moving with all deliberate speed to deal with tensions created by the long primary season, it announced today that Dana Singiser, who was Director of Women's Outreach for Hillary Clinton's campaign, would be brought aboard as a senior advisor to "help direct efforts to win the women’s vote."

This is the third recent hire of a key Clinton staffer by Obama. The second was policy chief Neera Tanden. And neither move involved the controversy associated with the first hiring, that of former HRC campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle.

Aside from the "unity" symbolism, Singiser will obviously be in a good position to help Obama gain the support of women who strongly supported HRC, and are relunctant to transfer allegiance to the presumptive nominee.

Obama proposes bankruptcy relief

Reuters reports that Barack Obama will propose modifications of a controversial 2005 bankruptcy "reform" law in remarks today at a town hall meeting in an Atlanta suburb.

This is Day Two of the presidential campaign's latest Economy Week, and Obama's Atlanta speech will propose an overhaul of bankruptcy laws "to ease their impact on people unable to pay their bills because of medical expenses or military service."

It appears that Obama's proposal will track some key amendments to the 2005 law that were voted down in the Senate, with Obama supporting them and McCain in opposition. Obama voted against final passage of the new law, and McCain supported it.

Raising this subject gives Obama a way of nicely contrasting his views with McCain's in terms of their relative commitment to struggling families (including military families) when their interests collide with those of creditors. This also happens to be a hot-button issue in the progressive netroots, where substantial congressional Democratic support for the 2005 law was widely deplored as a money-driven abandonment of principle.

I doubt Obama deliberately timed this speech to coincide with the beginning of Senate consideration of the FISA reauthorization, where his position supporting ultimate passage, even with telecomm immunity, has hung fire in the progressive blogosphere. But depending on the details of his bankruptcy proposal, it might give some pause to all the "move to the right" talk about the current phase of his campaign.

A field guide for McCain campaign infighting

For the second day in a row, the New York Times features insights into the roiling waters of John McCain's presidential campaign.

Yesterday it was Bill Kristol; today it's Adam Nagourney, whose field guide to the factional leaders within Team McCain concludes with the suggestion that "voters now might be getting an early glimpse of the messy, unstructured way in which a McCain White House might be managed."

Ouchy, ouchy.

Nagourney relentlessly attributes the disarray to the candidate himself, who "is uncomfortable firing people or banishing them entirely. His orbit remains filled with people who have been demoted without being told they are being demoted, like Mr. [Rick] Davis, who continues to hold the title of campaign manager even as Mr. [Steve] Schmidt manages the campaign." McCain also, says Nagourney, is the source of the persistent rumors that another shakeup is underway that will bring Mike Murphy in to roll the rest of the team.

But Nagourney's most subversive suggestion is that Karl Rove Himself is now a major factional player in the McCain campaign, operating through proteges like Schmidt and former White House communications director Nicole Wallace.

This is just the kind of press coverage McCain needs to help rebut arguments that he's running for "George W. Bush's third term." Maybe these fine campaign professionals are inured to such talk. But you have to wonder whether Nagourney's right about the internal paralysis, and if not, whether his analysis represents the kind of poison that could quickly spread. He saved his best shot for the kicker, quoting another McCain intimate with shadowy influence over the candidate, John Weaver, as saying of McCain: "[F]or his own sake, he needs to finally, firmly decide where he wants to take this campaign."

Posted in: John McCain

The other "other woman" for veep

With one name (Jim Webb) dropping off Barack Obama's list of potential running-mates today, it's as good a time as any to add one. Some people will tell you that Obama dare not name another woman if he spurns (as the CW holds he will) Hillary Clinton. And the only name often heard as the "other woman" on the veep short-list is Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

But over at The American Prospect, Dana Goldstein makes a solid case for another "other woman" worthy of consideration: Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano.

Napolitano is one of those "centrist" Democrats whose early endorsement of Barack Obama's candidacy was based in no part of the transpartisan and pragmatic rhetoric that so many of his fans and critics never took that seriously. As Goldstein notes, it probably made sense to her as a politician who has personally managed to reach out to (and/or neuter) Republicans in Arizona, without sacrificing her progressive principles or her willingness to fight the Right when necessary. (The article is provocatively entitled, "Janet Napolitano and the New Third Way.")

Indeed, Napolitano seems to have made something of a speciality of defying stereotypes. She got her first big political break by serving on Anita Hill's legal team during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings. But she gets along well with good old boys, and built her pre-gubernatorial career on being a tough prosecutor. She's a leader among Democrats who are very serious about immigration enforcement. But she defied harsh Republican (and voter-initiated) anti-immigrant measures, while maintaining a remarkable level of popularity.

In terms of her personal style, says Goldstein, Napolitano is "both wonky and charismatic. When she's ticking off the details of her new children's health insurance proposal, she reminds you of Hillary Clinton -- except you don't get the sense Napolitano has had to practice to come off as funny or natural in public." One of her supposed handicaps -- rumors about her sexuality (she's never married) -- doesn't seem to have hurt her in her relatively conservative state. And as Goldstein notes, her "story" has some interesting chapters: "This is a woman who has climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro and survived breast cancer."

Goldstein suggests that Napolitano's great ambition in life is to become Attorney General of the United States. But don't be surprised if she eventually makes the veep shortlist. She could help Obama keep McCain very occupied in his Arizona base, and could help in other western states as well, without appearing provincial (she was actually born in New York City).

Keep her in mind as Denver, and the next administration, grow nearer. She'll be relevant even if John McCain wins the presidency, since she'll be appointing his successor in the Senate.

Posted in: Barack Obama

Jim Webb pulls out of veepstakes

The bitter legacy of Jesse Helms
There's a reason why so many Americans can't feel charitable about the passing of the virulent warrior of the Right.
Blurring the lines on Iraq
Republicans are attacking Barack Obama on the war, claiming he's flip-flopped, but that allegation doesn't hold water.
McCain's economic plan looks DOA
John McCain's latest economic policy package appears to be a dressed up re-hash of proposals that are unlikely to pass Congress anyway.
Big speech, big venue
Barack Obama's campaign has officially announced that the presumptive Democratic nominee will accept the nomination not at the convention site but at a 76,000-seat stadium nearby.

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Recent Posts

Quote of the day from Dan Balz
Dan Balz looks at John McCain's self-contradictory economic plan and concludes he's the "pure reflection of the Republican Party he seeks to lead."
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