The Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 uses the latest poll from each state, regardless of the poll's credibility, and awards a state to whoever is leading in the latest poll, no matter by how much. Thus, in Tuesday's tally, Kerry gets Florida's 27 Electoral College votes based on a slim 1-point lead in a Survey USA poll that might be more accurately called a tie. It's an un-nuanced, winner-take-all approach where a huge number of Electoral College votes can swing with truly minuscule changes in the popular vote -- exactly like the Electoral College itself.
USA Today's battleground state tracker also uses the latest polls, but it seems to refrain from painting a state red or blue until there's a consensus in the polls beyond their margins of error. Thus, while Kerry is up by 4 in the latest Wisconsin poll, USA Today lists it as a toss-up state.
The Washington Post's Electoral College map is a somewhat slower-moving and subjective affair, combining recent polling with analysis from the likes of David Broder. It's more cautious than the others, too: While it acknowledges that most observers have handed Oregon to Kerry, the Post is holding off because, it says, both sides still think the state is in play.
The CBS News electoral vote map is also on the cautious side. But unlike the Post, CBS offers no state-specific information about the polling or analysis that leads to its calls.
Where it gets you: It takes 270 Electoral College votes to win. As of Tuesday evening, the Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 has Kerry up 284-247; USA Today has Bush up 216-213, the Washington Post has Bush up 208-179, and CBS has Bush up 222-217. Average the four, and you get a race that's exactly tied: 223.25 for Bush, 223.25 for Kerry.
There are other ways to look at this thing -- futures trading, first-wife cookie contests, a geography-based test that compares the candidates' names and the names of cities and towns in America. But if you're grasping for those kinds of straws, maybe it would be better to take a break from the whole thing now. In just two weeks, Tim Russert will be on TV with his handheld white board, moving states from red to blue and back again. All will be known then. Or maybe not.
This story has been changed since it was originally published.
About the writer
Tim Grieve is a senior writer for Salon based in San Francisco.
Related Stories
In polls we trust?
Bush leads by 10 points. No, wait, Kerry's up by 5. No, Nader's on top! OK -- that's not true, but in the ever crazier world of election polls, who knows what's next?
10/06/04
Story finder (3 ways to search Salon)
Salon Directory (browse by topic)