Preparing for the worst

As war looms over Afghanistan, relief agencies are racing to stave off mass starvation -- inside and outside the ravaged country.

By Anthony York

Oct. 5, 2001 | While the world waits for what appear to be inevitable military strikes in Afghanistan, international aid organizations are urgently preparing for what they fear may be the worst refugee crisis in a generation. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is preparing for as many as 1 million refugees to seek refuge in the wake of a military campaign. UNHCR is also preparing for a "worst case scenario" in which it must provide humanitarian aid to nearly 2 million Afghans inside and outside the country.

The looming refugee crisis is urgent, yet it threatens to obscure what some believe is an even bigger problem inside Afghanistan. Ravaged by war, tribal conflict, endemic poverty and -- for four years -- devastating drought, Afghanistan is one of the world's disaster areas. According to UNESCO, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 25 percent of all children in Afghanistan die before the age of 5. The country has the second lowest life expectancy in the world -- just under 46 years old -- and 40 percent of all Afghan children are malnourished. Drought has affected at least 12 million Afghans.

Over the last year, the UNHCR estimates 180,000 Afghans have fled into Pakistan. Since Sept. 11, the UNHCR has reported "large-scale population movements inside Afghanistan" -- some people fleeing to the borders, others fleeing the cities for the countryside. The UNHCR reported 15,000 new arrivals in Pakistan since Sept. 11. Up to 20,000 Afghans were recently reported waiting on the Afghan side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, but reports Thursday indicated many of those 20,000 refugees had left the border area, perhaps to return to their homes as fears of indiscriminate military strikes have subsided.

In fact, new concerns have emerged that Afghans may leave their homes needlessly and flee to the refugee camps if they believe there is an abundance of food in the camps. One British aid worker told the Financial Times, "There's a real danger we may be talking ourselves into a refugee crisis."

Just how large the refugee crisis will be remains unclear. Nearly one month after the U.S. threatened military action against Afghanistan's Taliban regime, the mass exodus many were expecting has yet to materialize. And aid organizations, led by the United Nations' World Food Program, are currently delivering thousands of tons of food to needy people inside Afghanistan. But such deliveries have become increasingly difficult, as the Taliban has cracked down on foreign aid workers.

As it struggles to hold together a delicate coalition and avoid inflaming the Islamic world, the Bush administration is giving humanitarian issues high profile. In a speech Thursday, flanked by Secretary of State Colin Powell, President Bush announced $320 million in new humanitarian aid for Afghanistan.

Pledging to help "the poor souls" of Afghanistan, Bush said, "Through our tears, we see opportunity, that in our sadness and grief we see an opportunity to not only defend freedom, but to make the world more peaceful."

Salon spoke with Lionel Rosenblatt, president of Refugees International, a Washington-based NGO dedicated to serving refugee populations, about the current humanitarian problems in Afghanistan.

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