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While everyone agrees that the Bosnian peace has to be cemented quickly, there are still deep divisions in thinking on how to achieve that. One camp, reportedly led by Dayton negotiator and current U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke, argues that the way to get out of Bosnia is by ramping up Western efforts to arrest war criminals and reform Bosnia's pre-war communist political and economic structures in which corruption persists. Holbrooke also advocates harsh punishment for anyone who intimidates people from returning to their homes.

"Right now, there is a big split in the State Department," says one Western analyst, who asked not to be named. "Officially, Holbrooke is not running anything here. But Holbrooke wants to be Gore's secretary of state, and Dayton is his baby. So he is looking for a more robust interpretation of Dayton."

"The other State Department camp," the analyst continued, led by the State Department's ambassador at large for the Balkans, James Dobbins, "is talking up Bosnian ownership of the peace process. Essentially, hand it over and get out as fast as we can after the presidential elections."

Also at stake is the legacy President Clinton hopes to leave abroad. Despite thousands of hours of effort, Clinton has been unable to secure a final peace deal in the Middle East. The near-breakdown of the Northern Ireland peace process and the recent collapse of international trade talks at the World Trade Organization conference in Seattle last week further underscore the fact that major foreign-policy victories have been elusive for the administration.

"Basically, the Clinton administration is holding its breath," the analyst continued. "They have very few foreign-policy successes. Their thinking goes, If we can hold on until elections, Bosnia can go to hell in a handbag afterwards. They just don't want it to blow up on their watch. So keep it on life support, keep it going."

But a State Department diplomat involved with the Balkans downplayed friction between the two camps. "Holbrooke is the architect and the godparent of Dayton, and everyone fully expected that he would remain closely involved in Dayton implementation," the official said. "Some people say we've done all the easy stuff. What's left now is really confronting head-on the anti-Dayton, mono-ethnic nationalist forces in Bosnia. And I think there is a general understanding in the U.S. and in many of the European capitals that strong measures are necessary."

"I think everyone is aware that the Republicans are going to be less willing to maintain the same level of resources that we commit to Bosnia if they win," he added. "We're definitely in a period of declining commitments of resources, both military and non-military."

Although Kosovo is now in effect competing with Bosnia for Western funds and NATO peacekeepers, the West's inability to cement peace in Bosnia in four years' time does not bode well for Kosovo and the rest of former Yugoslavia. Despite Western efforts to create democratic institutions and promote political moderates, the continued chokehold that hard-line nationalist extremists have in much of former Yugoslavia is troublesome to Western officials.

"The people of Bosnia-Herzegovina want a future. They want a future in Europe," said Jacques Klein, an American general who serves as the United Nations' special representative to Bosnia, speaking on ABC's "Nightline" earlier this week. "But I must tell you we have a small group of very hard-line partitionist leaders who still are building micro city-states, who like patronage and power and authority.

"Enormous progress has been made," Klein added, warning about the consequences of leaving the job in Bosnia undone. "And the key thing is the violence has stopped. The killing has stopped and people are now looking to the future and not to the past."

Despite the presence of some 80,000 NATO troops, ethnic hostilities continue to drive out minorities in Kosovo and prevent refugee return in Bosnia. The United States and its NATO allies have learned how to intervene. But they have yet to learn how to impose lasting peace.
salon.com | Dec. 6, 1999

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