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"She's a senior down at Duke," Robb later explains, admiringly, "and she's the goalie for the field hockey team. She had a shoulder operation over the winter, she's been beat up -- I've watched her -- she's one of those kids that has grit which is unbelievable. She's broken bones in her fingers, I've seen her knocked out cold, in soccer. She's tough. She makes up for just average talent with really determined skills. She'll play hurt."

Jenn Robb has since recovered, but she's not the only Robb who knows something about playing hurt. (Not to mention compensating for "average talent with really determined skills.") Because Chuck Robb -- decorated Marine, son-in-law of LBJ, successful governor, one of the first "New Democrats," a man once thought to be presidential timber -- is by all accounts the most vulnerable incumbent senator around.

Over at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Robb's electoral demise is considered the closest to a sure thing that exists in the fickle world of politics. Plenty of others agree.

"I don't think I'd bet on Robb no matter what kind of odds you gave me," says Don Baker, the Washington Post's former Richmond bureau chief.

The vulnerability of an incumbent like Robb could doom the Democrats' chances of taking back the Senate from Republicans in 2000. Currently, the GOP holds a 55-45 edge, and insurgent Democrats need to hold on to all their incumbents, plus pick up open seats -- as in New York -- as well as knock off a vulnerable Republican incumbent or two, to win back the Senate. Robb's likely demise is a disaster for the party's prospects.

There are any number of explanations for why Robb's playing hurt. Since the early '90s, his once-stalwart reputation has been steadily eroded by personal scandals. He was only narrowly reelected last time around, when challenged by the much-scorned Lt. Col. Oliver North. As further evidenced by the midterm elections held earlier this month -- when the Virginia GOP wrested control of the House of Delegates for the first time since Reconstruction -- Virginia is increasingly a Republican state. Robb's voting record does not exactly square with the commonwealth's ever-solidifying conservatism.

Then, of course, there's the man waiting in the wings, itchin' to take down Virginia's one surviving statewide Democrat: the tobacco-chewin', cowboy-boot-wearin', popular former Gov. George Allen.

"I'm the only one [in the Senate] who has so far drawn a first-tier competitor," Robb acknowledges, "so it becomes a very contested race."

A Mason-Dixon Polling and Research poll from September had Allen beating Robb in a hypothetical match-up, 50 percent to 38 percent. Allen also leads in the money race, $2.5 million to $1 million for Robb, according to June 30 Federal Election Commission filings.

"When's the last time you saw an incumbent this far behind in the polls and this far behind in fund-raising a year out?" asks Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Government Studies.

(Answer: never.)

There's another deficit between the two men, and that's in personality. Robb is stiff and awkward. Human connection does not come easy for him. His robotics make Al Gore look like Robin Williams.

Allen, by contrast, comes across as folksy, authentic, "good ol' George," as Baker calls him, yet his drawlin' country-boy exterior belies the cunning of a fierce ideologue.

In our interview, I mention Allen's charm factor to Robb.

"And he's been governor more recently, so he has two distinct advantages," Robb replies, affirming his own social shortcomings without my even having to bring them up.

"I'm not underestimating the challenge at all," Robb continues. "It's going to be very tough. I'm going to have to go through a difficult period when you have to constantly be tagged as 'the most vulnerable,' or whatever it is ... I realize that for the better part of a year it's going to look [like I'm going to lose]. And I'm going to have to just count to 10 and bite my lip when people write me off, or write checks to the other side because they think that's the smart way to do it ... But I've been through that before."

Sabato observes that "Robb's challenge is that he has to make people think again, because their first thought has already ended his senatorial career."

Next page | The consultants' "wet dream" come true