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As former Presidents Pat Robertson and Phil Gramm, among others, can attest, winning this early vote is vital for a candidate who wants to win his party's nomination, let alone the whole enchilada 15 months from now.

Also Today Iowa GOP Straw Poll results

Still, it's hard to argue against the fact that Bush -- who first came to Iowa only a few weeks ago, and beat second-place finisher/oddball gazillionaire Steve Forbes by 10.5 percent -- seems to be striking a chord among voters.

"Two months ago when my Iowa supporters convinced me to participate in this straw poll, some pundits said I had nothing to gain and potentially a lot to lose," a jubilant, goofy Bush gushed to his supporters under his tent. "Well thanks to you, we gained a lot ... We jump-started our grass-roots organization for the main event, the Iowa caucuses."

Bush's victory seems slightly more significant in that this year's event drew the biggest turnout in straw poll history. Over 23,000 Iowans voted this year -- almost a quarter of the electorate in the last Iowa caucus. This compares with the 1979 straw poll, which drew only 1,454 voters; the 1987 straw poll, with 3,843; and the 1995 event, which drew 10,958. That last one ended as a rather suspicious tie between Gramm and the eventual party nominee, Bob Dole. In addition, this year the voters had to be actual Iowans, as opposed to anybody with a pulse -- the standard in '95. Safeguards were taken this time around to prevent voter fraud, which was reportedly rampant four years ago.

Nevertheless, the vote on Saturday, which raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for the Iowa state GOP, had its share of critics. "This isn't democracy," complained Rob Tully, head of the Iowa Democratic Party. "They're handing these ballots out like candy."

Calling the straw poll a "sham" that contributes to "the pessimism and the cynicism" Americans feel about the role of money in politics, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., boycotted the event, spending his weekend instead on a boat in the middle of Lake Powell in Arizona. (McCain's opposition to ethanol subsidies hasn't exactly endeared him to the Iowa farm community, so maybe it was just as well the senator boycotted the poll. His campaign is hardly catching on here, and he may even bypass the Iowa caucuses next January.)

Noting that the other nine candidates had collectively spent millions of dollars on the event -- and underestimating the actual voter turnout -- McCain spokesman Howard Opinsky estimated the cost of each vote at $5,000 to $10,000. "Why not just buy everyone a car?" Opinsky asked.

He had a point, though his figures were exaggerated. Straw poll ballots cost $25, which the campaigns were only too happy to purchase for their voters. A few weeks ago, the two richest candidates got into a bidding war over the choicest tent spots outside the Hilton Coliseum at the Iowa State University campus. The Bushies ended up shelling out $43,500, while the Forbes campaign snatched up the spot right next door for only $8,000. A little further away from the action, the other candidates erected their tents, where they entertained their voters by serving up pork, shade and even the occasional celebrity.

Even with its cash-and-circus atmosphere, the straw poll has always been a good testing ground for bigger and better things. Bush can now claim that his appeal lies in more than the approval of the media and the GOP elite. But others claimed victory here as well. "Forbes did awfully well," says Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. "He's going to have to be taken seriously."

On the other hand, William Kristol of the Weekly Standard pointed out that "Forbes went to 77 [of Iowa's 99 counties]; Bush went to, I think, three. And Bush still beat him. The trouble for Forbes is, when is he ever going to have better circumstances? Money will never matter more."

The third-place finisher, sugar-coated Red Cross dominatrix Elizabeth Dole, "did better than anybody who isn't willing to blow the caps off" spending limits, said her campaign manager Tom Daffron. "We're in a different economic class than the two who beat us."

Daffron pointed out that Forbes is said to have poured more than $2 million into the contest, and "I don't know what Bush spent. They claim to have only spent $750,000, but if you believe that, I got some aluminum siding I want to sell you."

As a rough validation of the straw poll, Bush, Forbes and Dole also secured the top three places in a Harris Poll of 1,177 Iowans last week, with 42 percent of the Republicans choosing Bush, and 13 percent choosing both Forbes and Dole.

Lilliputian Christian conservative Gary Bauer scored fourth in the straw poll, which was a symbolic victory. Resounding defeats were handed to the kind-but-pathetic former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, who has basically lived here since '96, and Hoosier Dan Quayle, who, embarrassingly, finished behind even frothing preacher man Alan Keyes.

"The thing struck me the most is that 55 percent of the votes went to people who have never been elected to public office," says Kristol. "Nos. 2 through 5 have never been elected to anything. I know the Bush people think that this is great -- that Forbes and Dole and Bauer and Buchanan are not credible candidates -- but this seems to me to be a new era of American politics, the era of Jesse Ventura and Warren Beatty. I mean, these people beat former vice presidents and governors and senators."

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