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Three strikes and you're in
California's Democratic governor and Legislature fight each other over whether to build a new prison.
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[05/28/99]

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Only two weeks earlier, a senior executive at the same bank -- now under state control -- killed himself in a Tokyo hotel room. Before that, an employee of Japanese tire maker Bridgestone committed hara-kiri in his company's head office.

And, in the most notorious such case to date, three businessmen belonging to related firms checked into a hotel in a Tokyo suburb last year, shared a final drink together, and hanged themselves in separate rooms. Some say there have been dozens of other such suicides in recent months, and that the Japanese press is deliberately downplaying the incidents so as not to encourage imitators.

Japan is now approaching almost a full decade of recession, and, by most accounts, the end is nowhere in sight. The strange thing, however, is that this doesn't look anything like an economy in flames. People are still shopping for brand-festooned clothing and accessories (Gap cargo pants: $70). They're still dining out on small portions in absurdly overpriced restaurants. They still line up to pay about $15 for a ticket to see Robert De Niro blow things up in "Ronin," which just opened here.

The Japanese government has worked so hard to create a soft landing for its plunging economy, it has succeeded in erasing virtually all sense of crisis or urgency. The foundation may be crumbling, but, from the outside, Japan's economic house appears as neat and tidy as ever.

This is no small accomplishment. While neighboring South Korea has been to hell and back over the past couple of years restructuring its once-bankrupt economy and restoring a semblance of global competitiveness, Japan has managed to dither along with a series of short-term fixes that only scratch the surface of its deeper problems. If putting off the really hard work has been Japan's economic policy goal, then it can be said the country has succeeded brilliantly.

"The government has made it possible for companies to avoid restructuring and for many people to stay in their jobs," said Brian Rose, senior economist at Warburg Dillon Read (Japan). "There has been no dramatic crisis, and this has allowed the country to keep muddling along."

Of course, such a situation can't continue indefinitely. "It may not feel like a recession," Rose observed, "but things are worse now than they were a year ago, and we think they'll get worse still. Japan has yet to hit bottom."

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