A L S O__T O D A Y Left Hook By Joe Conason Head of Newt: Will Gingrich pay if Republicans blow the election? [ MEDIA CIRCUS ] Freshen up your election, hon? By James Poniewozik Politicians and pollsters, run! It's the attack of -- 60-foot Waitress Mom!   T A B L E+T A L K Does America's prison system need to be reformed? Discuss why or why not in the Social Issues area of Table Talk   R E C E N T L Y Strange bedfellows By Christopher Ott Anti-gay voters in Madison, Wis., could help elect the nation's first open lesbian to Congress (11/02/98) Starr springs a leak By Joe Conason Federal judge appoints special master to investigate illegal disclosures to media (10/30/98) Minnesota maverick By Micah Sifry The Reform Party's Jesse Ventura -- ex-Navy Seal and former professional wrestler -- is riding a wave of populist anger to become a contender in the governor's race (10/30/98) Illustrious historians blast attempt to impeach Clinton (10/30/98) Senator Strongarm By William Kistner and Murray Waas How Al D'Amato threatened African AIDS funding to help a big campaign contributor (10/29/98) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - S A L O N E M P O R I U M FREE! 12-ounce bag of Salon Blend with a purchase of $30 or more. While supplies last.
		Aristocracy of the dropouts Republicans will prevail as long as nonvoters rule America. BY TODD GITLIN | Is today's midterm election a referendum on (choose one) (a) President Bill Clinton, (b) Speaker Newt Gingrich, (c) Social Security, (d) local issues? The answer is, none of the above. More than anything else, the election is a referendum on the American political system itself. And, election after election, the system flunks. But the big flunk does not make big news. The big story, virtually the only story of this election, is a nonstory: At the core of American politics is a yawning, black sinkhole where Democrats' hopes melt down and most of the electorate vanishes. For the key to this election, as to most American elections, is the electorate that doesn't turn up. It is disproportionately -- no surprise -- less affluent, less educated, less white, less Republican than the private club of regular voters. To say its members are alienated is to say the obvious. The no-shows explain why a country with a largely Democratic belief system gives rise to an electorate that votes Republican. There is some good news. The American public is gamely trying to declare independence from the Beltway blowhards and petty inquisitors who have been trying to stampede them into deposing the president. The most unexpected good news about the slow-motion coup d'état the Republicans have mounted since January -- courtesy of Kenneth Starr, Linda Tripp, Lucianne Goldberg, Newsweek, Matt Drudge and a supporting cast of thousands -- is that the public hasn't bought it. Poll after poll, for more than nine months, reveals a public convinced that Clinton lied, that Starr overreached, that the media ran amok and that impeachment would be wrong. The problem is that this vast public, whispering its tastes and distastes to the pollsters, muttering in the streets, is not what elects the American government. The electorate is a sector, a fraction. And not a representative one. If registered voters beamed their likes and dislikes directly into a supercomputer, they would elect a Democratic Congress. So the polls say, and rather consistently. Here are some big, fat numbers to hold in your mind: According to a New York Times poll Oct. 26-28, registered voters prefer Democratic over Republican candidates for the House by a margin of 48 percent to 38 percent. It will take more numbers to drive the point home, so let me start by repeating. Forty-eight to 38 percent. If registered voters could cast their ballots simply by wishing -- leaving aside the ones who would sit it out even if they could vote with an act of mental concentration -- 56 percent of those who were prepared to choose when polled by the Times would choose Democrats over Republicans. A Congress elected in that way would consist of 243 Democrats and 192 Republicans. But we haven't yet figured out how to tally votes via Spockian mind meld. For a host of reasons, turnout falls far short of 100 percent of registered voters. Unlike other democracies, we vote on a work day, not a weekend. No one gets time off to vote. We consider politics dirty, distracting, trivial, juvenile. So turnout has been falling throughout the 20th century, with the falloff interrupted only by upticks in the 1930s, jolted by the Depression and the New Deal, and in the 1960s -- jolted by hopes for the Kennedy and Johnson years, by the civil rights movement, the Vietnam war and the antiwar movement. The falloff resumed after the '60s and goes on. During presidential elections, we're lucky to get 50 percent turnout. And during off-year elections, without a superhero or supervillain to draw folks to the booths, forget 50 percent. In 1994, it was 39 percent. Suppose that turnout this year matches the turnout of 1994. Then, according to the Times poll of Oct. 26-28, Republicans are preferred by 48 percent and Democrats by 43 percent. (The others are presumably undecided.) In the event voters turn out in those proportions, the House will number 229 Republicans to 206 Democrats. Or suppose the turnout is at the low end of recent off-year elections -- 31 percent as opposed to the 39 percent of 1994. According to the Times' calculations, the Republican House margin would soar to 241-194 -- almost as great a Republican margin as the Democrats would achieve via the Spockian mind-meld vote. On the other hand, even if Americans vote at a high rate -- if, say, a grand 47 percent of the voting-age population rouse themselves -- they'll still go for Republicans, albeit by a slender margin of 220 to 215 seats. Right now only one question is absorbing the pundits, spinners, counterspinners, advisers and consultants -- the whole electoral industry -- how Republican? N E X T+P A G E+| Being offensive is the Republicans' best defense