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A MAN FOR ALL SEASONS | PAGE 1, 2
Are we at a point of chaos yet in Russia? I use the old slogan of 1917, when some people said, "Power lies in the streets." Whoever is willing to pick it up, whoever has some kind of organization, or political will, they can grab power. Today Russia is in that situation. Power is now lying in the streets. General [Alexander] Lebed said something to the effect that the situation in Russia is developing so rapidly that if a rebellion happens soon, we will probably not even know the names of people who took over in the country. They won't be the names on the lips of everyone now -- Kryuchkov or Lebed. It will be someone absolutely unknown, who will arise as a result of a confrontation. Would General Lebed lead a revolt himself? No. I have a feeling he will not instigate something -- he knows it is a crime -- but if there is a genuine popular revolt, where the armed forces are involved and the people appeal to him, he will respond positively. That's my hunch. Just like Yeltsin did against Gorbachev. That's true. That's true. But Lebed will never, never instigate a military takeover, because he knows it's a capital offense and this would not be supported by many. But if there's a natural, spontaneous explosion, and there's an appeal for him to take over, he will not reject it. Can Yeltsin survive this crisis? I think his tenacity is well-known. But his mental capacity and his will have been lately on the wane. He has lost his grip. He knows he may be ousted and charged with crimes -- high treason, murder, theft. High treason? Absolutely. He will be charged with high treason because he was the most important player in the dissolution of the USSR. He will be charged with murder, because 150 people were killed in the parliament during the shelling by Yeltsin's tanks in 1993. And because of the war in Chechnya, where there were thousands of deaths -- people don't even know how many, maybe 100,000. This war was never approved by the parliament, it was just an internal operation, somebody just sent them out to commit genocide against the Chechnyan people. You spoke at rallies back then, so you know what it's like to be in the vortex of a gathering coup. Yes, I was one of the few who spoke out. But it was just to a few hundred people who would listen and applaud -- nothing like today, when there are tens of thousands. And if the present crisis is not diffused by Oct. 7? There will be millions of people demonstrating in the streets of all Russian cities, and a general strike which will paralyze ... [chuckles] whatever is left of the economy, all the transportation systems, which may result in some kind of action. Whether it will be the overthrow of the government, we don't know. This is where the military may join the civilians. Because it has not only been miners, teachers and doctors who have already been demonstrating for months with no effect, but it will also be the military-industrial complex, it will be -- I mean, everyone will come join the protest. If the Communists come into the government, will they attempt a return to a Soviet-style command economy? It's already in the air -- six banks have been nationalized. Other private banks may be closed and their assets taken over. There will be a fixed, government-maintained currency exchange rate -- with the black market back, of course. There may be restrictions on foreign travel, and on the Russian Internet -- there is already a draft law in the parliament to register every user and provider. The media will certainly be curbed, because it's owned by private interests, the bankers and others. So there will be a clampdown on the media, that is assured. Television will be one of the first casualties of these new laws. Those who resist will be charged with anti-patriotic something-or-other -- they'll have to come up with something new for the criminal code, but they always do. Is there any military threat to the West lurking in this grim scenario? No, no. Moscow is so consumed with its domestic problems it simply has no time, resources, interests or anything to challenge the West. And what can it challenge with? What can it offer? Weapons. The only thing Russia has to sell is its weapons. That's right, that's right. President Clinton has been hammered for standing by Yeltsin. What was the alternative? The administration put all its eggs in one basket. There were a lot of young guys in Russia and the government who were staunch supporter of liberal reforms, but they were never given a good play in the Western media. They were isolated, because they did not want to offend Yeltsin. These people were neglected [by the Clinton administration]. We should've invited them here, or to Great Britain, and given them a chance to show themselves. And where did our financial aid -- our billions -- go wrong? Most of it was misdirected. It was looted, squandered. The Western powers or lending institutions should have dealt with private businesses and encouraged joint ventures where, for example, they could have overhauled an automobile industry. Instead, they gave it to the bankers and it was a waste of money. Do we have any influence over the course of events now? No, unfortunately. And the United States, a great country which was admired by many Russians for many decades -- well, the Russians feel disappointed, they feel betrayed. This is bad. Anti-Americanism is on the rise. I feel sorry that some people who used to be my friends speak of America in a most negative way now. Where did we go wrong?
When the West won the Cold War and defeated the former Soviet Union, it
was not the end, it was the beginning. But I think the White House, and
the West generally, thought, well, the war is over, let's enjoy ourselves.
But that was just the beginning of another war -- the war against the
totalitarian mentality in Russia. That requires years of persistence and
hard work. It's still up for grabs, but it's hard not to say now that that
war may be lost.
Jeff Stein is a regular contributor to Salon.
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