But right now, consumers are cooled out on CDs. The question is who will jump-start sales for the third and fourth quarters. Some inside the industry pin their rebound hopes on Michael Jackson's comeback attempt, slated for later this year. Jackson can't be summarily dismissed, of course, but the fact that the industry is looking for relief to a 10-years-absent performer with a horrible public persona speaks for itself.

Speaking of fickle audiences and challenging public personas, the latest from pop rapper and impresario P. Diddy, formerly known as Puff Daddy, debuted Wednesday at No. 2 on the pop charts, behind Keys, selling 187,000 copies. That's a shaky showing for a performer who churned out million-sellers just a few years ago.

Others suggest new CDs by 'N Sync in July and Mariah Carey in August will ignite consumer passions. One year ago 'N Sync's album "No Strings Attached" broke all sales records when more than 2 million copies blew out of stores in its first seven days. (The album has since been certified platinum 12 times.) Yet the boy-band bubble is showing some signs of wearing thin. After two months at radio, 'N Sync's latest single, "Pop," has already peaked (it stalled at No. 19) and has been falling down the Billboard Hot 100 chart for weeks.

'N Sync's single "has not been the Pied Piper, but that doesn't mean they can't turn it around," says Geoff Mayfield, chart guru for Billboard. "Pop" topped the countdown on MTV's popular "TRL" request show this week, but by the time 'N Sync's album "Celebrity" hits stores next Tuesday "Pop" may already have dropped out of radio's top 50. And the truth is, it's radio singles, not television videos, that drive the bulk of CD sales.

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That's better than poor Carey. On the eve of the release of "Glitter," her first album since leaving Sony Music (and her former husband, Sony Music chairman Tommy Mottola), the sultry singer's new single, "Loverboy," is a bona fide stiff, currently at No. 61, five weeks after it was shipped to radio. (The single is so forgettable it was trashed by the review-friendly editors at Billboard.) Meanwhile, her video clip is quickly fading from MTV's rotation.

In the wake of the Napster debate, an argument could be made that savvy consumers are simply no longer doling out cash for CDs. They're still devouring new music at a healthy rate, swapping files with friends, but it's just not showing up in SoundScan.

Could be. So why aren't they going to see live music either? When you factor in the weak concert-ticket sales -- you can't download the live experience of an encore -- the more realistic scenario is that the product, as music is referred to inside the business, just is not moving consumers.

Revenues from concert-ticket sales declined 12 percent from January to June, according to Pollstar magazine. Worse, a disturbing trend continues: Actual attendance dropped again in 2001, this time down 16 percent compared with the first six months of last year. (Ticket prices continue to go up, which explains the discrepancy between those two numbers.)

Among those who are not to blame for the concert downturn are U2, Madonna and the Dave Matthews Band. 'N Sync's monstrous tour continues to sell well, although the use of the phrase "sold out stadium tour" by the group's label Jive Records in a recent trade ad was rather liberal; walk-up tickets the night of the show have been available at virtually every stop along the way.

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