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T A B L E _ T A L K Will portals be going the way of "Push" or is this current fad destined to become a permanent fixture? Discuss portal mania in Table Talk's Digital Culture area R E C E N T L Y Let's Get This Straight The paperless book Do loose lips sink chips? Paul is live World war 3.0 - - - - - - - - - - BROWSE THE - - - - - - - - - -
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THE FUTURE IS NOW -- AND THEN | PAGE 1, 2
Sawyer illustrated this with a laundry list of familiar Net-phobic bugaboos: an increase in the quantity and decrease in the quality of information; reduced interpersonal contact and a corollary rise in bad manners, dishonesty and alienation; a decrease in learning skills. "There's a tendency in young people today, if information is not on a computer, to ... not have heard of it," she said. "If it comes out of the computer, it's the gospel truth." Sawyer referred to such trends as "catalysts of chaos." It's a phrase many of the other speakers would have found useful. Oddly enough for a group professing excitement about the glorious years to come, the futurists spent much of the weekend brooding about the evil ramifications of current trends. Speakers predicted a "cascade effect" from the Y2K problem that would inspire either "chaos or social transformation." They warned of a "megatrend of ... a new and more ugly nationalism." And they wondered, "How Ready Are Our Business Systems for the Future?" An audience member at one panel, noting the increasing pace of technological development, plaintively asked, "What can be done to slow down or stop this?" Much as they might occasionally like to echo his fear, futurism's leaders maintain a tone of loud, though cautious, optimism. They are, after all, futurists, and they're not going to abandon 30 years' worth of ebullient visions just because the world's caught up with them. So they strive to give their ideas a subtle singularity, something that will stand up to the economic analysts, digital-culture gurus and other, better-connected prognosticators who have ridden the '90s tech wave to our culture's fore. One such twist is a thick streak of populism. This gives the futurists a meaningful voice for their aging, anxious membership, who are clearly groping for some bulwark against technology's unpredictable advance. Expressions of pessimism like those above are usually couched in anti-elitist terms, pointing up ways that ordinary folks can band together to counter the digerati's blinkered view. These methods might include "international communities of wisdom," "creating a pluralistic environment in which excellence is found in everyone" or even a global sing-along on the night of Dec. 31, 1999. Not surprisingly, few actual digerati were in attendance. Looking like a tiny delegation from a faraway place with their sleek black laptops and relatively trendy clothes, MSNBC commentator Omar Wasow and NetGuide creator Michael Wolff (author of "Burn Rate") told a sparse crowd of 25 what it was like to use the Internet. Their panel was ostensibly about "The Future of the Media," but they stayed clear of such involved topics as online economics or the new-vs.-old-media debate. Wolff, having assured the audience he was "the consummate media professional," doubtless befuddled most listeners with a discourse on technology as metaphor and "the fundamental assumption [that] the Internet [is] media." The 28-year-old Wasow, talking about his experience with computers ("There's something called Usenet, which is this forum to post messages back and forth"), sounded like a kind of cross-generational interpreter filling the parents in on the weird pastimes of their kids. The atmosphere was far more electric at the earlier "Emerging Technologies: Forecasts of the Technology Revolution for 2000-2050." Two hundred people packed into the room to hear leading futurists do what they do best: place current developments in a reassuring context of wildly idealistic, "Star Trek"-style pipe dreams. Reviewing the findings of the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies (which, amusingly, were displayed via one of those overhead transparency projectors you may remember from elementary school), the panelists were only moderately perturbed by wild divergences in their predictions' probability. The survey found that computerized language translation would be widely available in 2012, personal digital assistants would be used by a majority of people in 2008 and mag-lev (magnetic levitation) trains would connect most American cities by 2017. But the specific dates weren't important, futurist consultant Joseph Coates said. "How will it affect politics?" he asked. "How will it affect home life? ... What's of interest is the consequences." Besides, as one audience member pointed out, at least someone's trying. "We shouldn't bash people for trying to predict the future," he said after a brief eruption of anti-Delphi sentiment had sparked tension in the hall. "We shouldn't put people down for trying. We ... [should] just help people keep on keepin' on." He was answered with a round of hearty applause -- well-deserved, since he had validated the futurists' mission and restored their tribal bond. After all, who cares if they're wrong about a few details in the next couple of decades? There's still the year 3000 to look forward to. An editor at Chicago's Windy City Times, Etelka Lehoczky has also written for Feed, Newsday and In These Times. |